Recent polling in the City of Detroit shows that Mike Duggan is leading at a 2-1 margin in the race for Mayor of Detroit. Although the race is far from over this is a substantial lead in the polls. With 6 weeks to go Mr. Duggan has found himself in a favorable spot on top of the polls. As the article below suggests, the efforts of his opponents to get him kicked off of the ballot earlier this year may have backfired on them. If anything, it seems to have made Mr. Duggan more of a story than before and some suggest that it may have even made him more sympathetic as a candidate.
As the saying goes, all press is good press. That saying may apply here. In my opinion, it may have given him the spotlight he needed to garner more attention from people. The thought being that those who didn’t know he before may have wanted to know why he posed such a threat to his opponents.
“By Mike Helms,Detroit Free Press Staff Writer.
Coming off a surprisingly strong win in Detroit’s Aug. 6 primary, Mike Duggan still leads Benny Napoleon nearly 2-1 among voters with just six weeks left before one of them becomes the city’s next mayor, according to an exclusive Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll.
Duggan, the former chief of the Detroit Medical Center, was favored 49% to 25% for Wayne County sheriff Napoleon, the poll of 400 likely Detroit voters found. About 26% of respondents were undecided.
Duggan’s lead was outside the poll’s margin of error of 4.9 percentage points and nearly mirrors his showing in the city’s primary, when he captured 51% of the vote despite having been booted from the ballot over residency issues and running as a write-in candidate.
“We know that races tend to tighten up toward the end, so we’re going to keep working twice as hard to engage with residents in neighborhoods all across the city,” Duggan campaign manager Bryan Barnhill II said. “I think people appreciate Mike’s plan for the city and his approach. He lays out his plan, he engages in a dialogue and he incorporates good ideas into it.
“People walk away from the experience thinking Mike not only has the ideas to move the city forward, but he’s also got the ability.”
The latest poll will not deter Napoleon’s campaign, said spokesman Jamaine Dickens. The campaign will “continue to communicate with voters about what’s at stake in this election,” said Dickens.
But Napoleon may be losing momentum; his approval ratings among likely voters have fallen significantly. A May Free Press/WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) poll found his approval rating at 63% favorable and 20% unfavorable; this latest poll shows those who view him favorably now at 43%, and his unfavorability numbers at 35%. Favorarability numbers for Duggan, on the other hand, rose slightly, to 56% from 52% in May, while his unfavorability numbers remained at 19%.
EPIC-MRA of Lansing conducted the poll of 400 likely Detroit voters Sept. 17-19 for the Free Press and WXYZ-TV.
“This city is at a crossroads, and we are confident that Detroiters understand they are faced with a life-changing decision that will come down to the credibility of two candidates: One who has a proven track record in reducing crime by double digits in Detroit and skin in the game in transforming neighborhoods; versus a candidate who has no clue about crime trends in Detroit and who couldn’t find a specific Detroit neighborhood without a navigation system,” Dickens said.
Detroit political consultant Steve Hood said Napoleon’s campaign needs a major shake-up quickly with a retuned message. Hood said Napoleon didn’t ditch campaign staff “who brought him in second in the primary.”
“To repeat the same thing over and over again and expect a different result is lunacy,” said Hood, who hasn’t consulted for the Napoleon campaign but has sold it voter lists. “He has to fine-tune his crime-prevention message. He has to show he’s the mayor for all of the people. And he has to define Mr. Duggan. So far, Mr. Duggan has been the only one defining Mr. Duggan.”
Napoleon’s favorability numbers could have dropped in part because of efforts led by former mayoral candidate Tom Barrow and labor activist Robert Davis to have Duggan removed from the ballot and force recounts, a bid that political analysts say made Duggan appear sympathetic.
But Napoleon’s bid also has been hurt because of controversy over the failed Wayne County Jail project in Detroit, no matter how little Napoleon had to do with the deal, Hood said.
“Like it or not, he is part of the Wayne County that is (county Executive) Bob Ficano, and that is not popular,” Hood said. “It’s still winnable for him. But he needs to retune his message.”
The mayor’s race could be among the most historic in generations, with Detroit battling in bankruptcy court under nearly $20 billion in debts and long-term liabilities after decades of mismanagement, loss of its manufacturing base, population and business flight and mounting costs for retiree pension and health benefits.
Napoleon has campaigned as the hometown boy made good: a lawman who rose through the ranks of the Detroit Police Department to become chief, before moving on to a job in the Wayne County executive’s office and later as county sheriff. He has emphasized his Detroit roots and lifelong residency, in contrast to Duggan, who grew up in the city but lived in Livonia for years before moving back in 2012 before running for mayor.
Napoleon stepped up his efforts after the primary. He hammered on the decades-long focus on reviving downtown while Detroit’s neighborhoods suffered amid unemployment, struggling city services and abandonment that skyrocketed when the national housing bubble burst, leading to widespread foreclosures.
Duggan has stuck to a campaign that emphasizes his ability to turn around troubled institutions and go after negligent property owners, an effort he began as Wayne County prosecutor.
That message resonated with Delores Mays, 68, a lifelong Detroiter and retired health care benefits worker who has two adult children and lives in Midtown.
“I just have a lot of faith in him,” Mays said of Duggan. “I think that Duggan can turn the city around, and I don’t think Napoleon can do it. It’s time for someone who has knowledge about money and what to do with it.”
Still, Napoleon has won most major endorsements from labor unions, clergy and the city’s elected leadership; Duggan has raked in support from downtown business leaders who’ve flooded his campaign coffers with cash.
Political analyst Eric Foster, who consulted on the mayoral campaign of state Rep. Fred Durhal Jr. that didn’t survive the primary, said the poll shows Napoleon is struggling to connect with voters and convince them that he’s capable of running Detroit at a perilous time.
The issue goes beyond race in a campaign pitting a lifelong black Detroit lawman against a white Detroit native who lived much of his life in the suburbs, Foster said. The poll, for one, found that around 80% of voters in the nation’s largest black-majority city say race is not a factor in their choice of candidates.
“Black voters are looking for more than identity politics,” Foster said. “Benny Napoleon’s window is closing for him to make changes to connect with voters.”
Foster said his own firm’s modeling shows Duggan could win as much as two-thirds of the November vote, and it’s a mistake to assume that the primary elections were a fluke with far different results coming Nov. 5.
“People don’t know specifically what Benny will do that will tangibly change their neighborhoods,” Foster said. “Mike laid out a detailed plan. Even if you didn’t agree with all the points, you at least knew what it would mean for your neighborhood.”
Napoleon’s message of fighting for a rebound in the neighborhoods and focusing less on supporting downtown and Midtown aren’t necessarily what attracted Detroiter William Taylor, 47, a driver who lives in Midtown, to support Napoleon.
“I’ve watched his career, and I’ve met him a couple of times, and he seems like he’s pretty genuine,” said Taylor, a married father of five. “He’s still in the city of Detroit. He hasn’t really left us. He’s still dealing with the same issues as we are.”
Contact Matt Helms: 313-222-1450, mhelms@freepress.com or on Twitter www.twitter.com/matthelms”
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2013309230013
